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This WeekJune 29 – July 3, 2026

U.S. Jobs Report and Housing Data Lead June 29-July 3, 2026 Week

The week features the June employment report on Thursday and several housing and confidence indicators. Markets observe Independence Day on Friday with limited trading. Recent FOMC minutes and geopolitical developments may influence sentiment. Investors will monitor labor market signals for policy clues.

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Inside this edition

  • The Week Ahead
  • Key Events to Watch
  • Last Week in Review
  • Capital-Flow Watch
  • Bottom Line

Editor's Picks

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Markets — The New Reality from Claude Data: AI Is Already Doing Substantial Portions of Jobs — Is the Global Economy and Capital Allocation Ready?
📈 MarketsJune 26, 2026

The New Reality from Claude Data: AI Is Already Doing Substantial Portions of Jobs — Is the Global Economy and Capital Allocation Ready?

Anthropic’s latest Economic Index report, released on June 26, 2026, delivers one of the most granular, real-time views yet of how frontier AI is embedding itself into economic activity. Unlike earlier indices that focused primarily on task exposure and adoption curves, the June edition introduces hourly sampling of conversations alongside a linked survey of approximately 9,700 Claude users.

Editor’s Pick7 min

Featured

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Explainer — Germany’s Automotive Powerhouse Faces Existential Test: Can Restructuring and Policy Reforms Restore Competitiveness?
📘 ExplainerJune 27, 2026

Germany’s Automotive Powerhouse Faces Existential Test: Can Restructuring and Policy Reforms Restore Competitiveness?

The German automotive industry, long a pillar of Europe’s industrial might and a symbol of engineering excellence, is navigating one of its most severe crises in decades. In 2025 and into 2026, the sector has recorded sharp profit declines, accelerated job losses, and a dramatic erosion of its dominant position in key export markets

Nakitte Featured6 min
Explainer — Inspecting Data-Center-Specific Energy Solutions: How Vertiv, Schneider Electric, Bloom Energy and Constellation Address High-Density AI Power and Thermal Challenges
📘 ExplainerJune 23, 2026

Inspecting Data-Center-Specific Energy Solutions: How Vertiv, Schneider Electric, Bloom Energy and Constellation Address High-Density AI Power and Thermal Challenges

AI and high-performance computing workloads have pushed server and rack heat densities far beyond traditional air-cooling limits. Modern GPU-heavy racks now exceed 80–100 kW, with individual servers generating heat loads of 6–10 kW or more—up to 50× the thermal output of legacy CPUs in some accelerator configurations.

Nakitte Featured9 min

Weekly Briefs by Country

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Netherlands — Netherlands Navigates Heatwave and ECB Rate Effects in Past Week
🇳🇱 NetherlandsJune 29, 2026

Netherlands Navigates Heatwave and ECB Rate Effects in Past Week

The past week in the Netherlands was dominated by an intense heatwave peaking mid-week with temperatures reaching 37-38°C, straining infrastructure and prompting cooling measures for bridges. Lingering effects from the ECB's June 11 rate hike to 2.25% on the deposit facility continued to influence borrowing costs and inflation expectations amid Middle East-related energy pressures. Economic forecasts from earlier in June highlighted moderated growth of around 1.0% for 2026 with elevated inflation risks. Investors may monitor weather-related disruptions and euro-area monetary transmission.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
United Arab Emirates — UAE diplomacy with US and oil export rebound highlight past week
🇦🇪 United Arab EmiratesJune 29, 2026

UAE diplomacy with US and oil export rebound highlight past week

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the UAE midweek to address Gulf concerns over the recent US-Iran agreement, while reports showed UAE oil exports recovering to 85% of pre-war levels. The Central Bank maintained its base rate at 3.65% earlier in the month, and private-sector Emiratization targets approach a June 30 deadline. These developments underscore ongoing regional stabilization efforts and gradual economic normalization following the spring conflict.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Russia — Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 14.25% amid inflation and fiscal risks
🇷🇺 RussiaJune 29, 2026

Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 14.25% amid inflation and fiscal risks

The Bank of Russia delivered a smaller-than-expected 25 basis point rate cut to 14.25% on June 19, citing persistent pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal policy and energy supply disruptions. Geopolitical developments in the Ukraine conflict continued through the week, with President Putin rejecting new proposals on June 28 and reaffirming territorial objectives. Russian equity markets showed volatility, with the MOEX index fluctuating around recent lows. Investors may monitor how monetary easing interacts with sanctions and commodity revenues in a global portfolio context.

AI Weekly Brief4 min
China — PBOC Strengthens Short-Term Rate Controls as May Retail Sales Contract
🇨🇳 ChinaJune 29, 2026

PBOC Strengthens Short-Term Rate Controls as May Retail Sales Contract

China's central bank advanced measures to tighten oversight of overnight money markets during the week, following confirmation of the first retail sales decline in over three years. Industrial profits showed resilience amid export strength, while weak domestic demand persisted. Investors are monitoring liquidity management and cross-border trade tensions for portfolio implications.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Türkiye — Borsa Istanbul Steady Near 14,274 Amid Elevated Inflation and Policy Hold
🇹🇷 TürkiyeJune 29, 2026

Borsa Istanbul Steady Near 14,274 Amid Elevated Inflation and Policy Hold

Turkey's equity market showed resilience midweek with the BIST 100 near 14,274 points, reflecting limited volatility despite ongoing regional energy price pressures. The central bank's decision to maintain the policy rate at 37% earlier in the month continues to anchor expectations, while May inflation at 32.61% underscores persistent price pressures. Q1 GDP growth of 2.5% provides context for a moderating expansion. Investors are monitoring cross-border flows and domestic demand trends in a high-uncertainty environment.

AI Weekly Brief3 min

Important Events This Week

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  • Tue, Jun 30

    S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April)

    United States · Activity

  • Tue, Jun 30

    Chicago PMI (June)

    United States · Activity

  • Tue, Jun 30

    Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)

    United States · Activity

  • Tue, Jun 30

    JOLTS Job Openings (May)

    United States · Jobs

  • Wed, Jul 1

    ADP Employment Report (June)

    United States · Jobs

  • Wed, Jul 1

    ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)

    United States · Activity

Markets

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Hong Kong — Hang Seng — Hang Seng Index Drops 5.2% in Week to June 26, Worst Since 2025
🇭🇰 Hong KongJune 29, 2026

Hang Seng Index Drops 5.2% in Week to June 26, Worst Since 2025

The Hang Seng Index fell 5.2% over the trading week ending June 26, 2026, closing at 22,671.86 after declining across most sessions amid a broad technology selloff. Losses accelerated mid-week with the index touching multi-month lows before a modest stabilization. The decline marked the largest weekly drop in over a year and was driven primarily by weakness in AI and semiconductor-related names. Global risk sentiment and China-specific data also weighed on sentiment.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Tokyo — Nikkei 225 — Nikkei 225 Volatile Week Ends Lower After Record High
🇯🇵 TokyoJune 29, 2026

Nikkei 225 Volatile Week Ends Lower After Record High

The Nikkei 225 closed the week of June 22-26 at 69,360.88, down roughly 2.65% from the prior Friday amid sharp daily swings. The index surged to a record close above 72,000 on June 22 before retreating on geopolitical concerns and profit-taking. AI and semiconductor stocks drove early gains but later led declines. Broader market breadth remained moderate as investors monitored Middle East developments and domestic data.

AI Weekly Brief3 min

Briefs by Theme

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Rates & Bonds — US Treasury Yields Mixed Week of June 22-29 2026 Amid Geopolitics
📉 Rates & BondsJune 29, 2026

US Treasury Yields Mixed Week of June 22-29 2026 Amid Geopolitics

US Treasury yields fluctuated during the week ending June 29, 2026, with short-term rates rising early on inflation concerns before moderating. The 10-year yield ended near 4.38% and the 2-year near 4.07%, reflecting persistent hawkish Fed signals and Middle East tensions. Broader global bond markets saw similar pressures from sticky inflation and diverging central bank paths. Investors may monitor curve dynamics and duration exposure in this environment.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
FX & Currencies — US Dollar Gains 0.73% as Hawkish Fed Bets and Data Support Strengthen It
💱 FX & CurrenciesJune 29, 2026

US Dollar Gains 0.73% as Hawkish Fed Bets and Data Support Strengthen It

The US dollar index rose 0.73% over the week to 101.49, outperforming peers amid resilient US economic data and repriced expectations for higher Federal Reserve rates. The yen weakened toward 162 per dollar, prompting intervention concerns, while the euro and other majors softened against the greenback. Broader capital continued flowing toward US assets on relative yield and growth advantages.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Precious Metals — Precious Metals Extend Declines Amid Stronger Dollar and Rate-Hike Bets
🥇 Precious MetalsJune 29, 2026

Precious Metals Extend Declines Amid Stronger Dollar and Rate-Hike Bets

Gold and silver prices fell sharply over the week ending June 29, 2026, with gold testing below $4,000 and silver dropping below $60 amid a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases. The selloff, which accelerated early in the week on hawkish policy signals, erased further gains from 2026 highs and prompted analysts to lower forecasts. Platinum and palladium also traded near multi-month lows. Central bank buying provided some underlying support but was insufficient to offset macro headwinds.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Geopolitics — US-Iran Talks Show Mixed Progress Amid Broader Middle East and Ukraine Tensions
🌍 GeopoliticsJune 29, 2026

US-Iran Talks Show Mixed Progress Amid Broader Middle East and Ukraine Tensions

The week of June 22-29, 2026, featured incremental advances in US-Iran negotiations toward a potential peace roadmap, tempered by later uncertainty and ongoing regional conflicts. Russia escalated actions in the Black Sea while cross-border incidents occurred elsewhere. Investors monitored implications for energy routes, supply chains, and risk sentiment across global markets.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Tech — Tech Sector Volatility Rises on AI Cost and Talent Concerns
💻 TechJune 29, 2026

Tech Sector Volatility Rises on AI Cost and Talent Concerns

The past week saw sharp swings in global tech markets, beginning with a broad selloff in megacap names on June 22 driven by AI talent departures and extending to memory chip suppliers later in the period amid rising cost worries. Semiconductor stocks showed resilience mid-week ahead of key earnings, while broader indices reflected mixed performance with the Nasdaq particularly pressured. Investors monitored ongoing AI infrastructure demand against emerging questions around sustainability of spending and competitive positioning.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Energy — Oil Prices Drop Sharply on US-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening
🛢️ EnergyJune 29, 2026

Oil Prices Drop Sharply on US-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening

Oil prices fell markedly during the week ending June 29, 2026, as a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signaled the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and eased prior supply disruptions. Brent crude declined around 8% and US benchmarks posted similar weekly losses, reaching lows not seen since early March. Energy equities lagged broader markets amid the reduced risk premium. Gasoline prices continued their multi-week decline, falling below $4 per gallon nationally.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Crypto — Crypto Assets Decline as Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach $1.8 Billion in Week
₿ CryptoJune 29, 2026

Crypto Assets Decline as Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach $1.8 Billion in Week

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and Ethereum traded near $1,570 by June 29, marking weekly declines of about 6% and 8% respectively amid heavy institutional selling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.79 billion in net outflows during the June 22-26 period, contributing to over $4 billion in monthly redemptions. Market sentiment remained in extreme fear territory with the Fear & Greed Index near 17. Regulatory deadlines under Europe's MiCA framework also pressured unlicensed platforms late in the week.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Macro — Global Macro: Central Banks Hold Steady as Inflation Lingers Above Targets
🌐 MacroJune 29, 2026

Global Macro: Central Banks Hold Steady as Inflation Lingers Above Targets

The past week highlighted continued caution from major central banks following the Fed's mid-June hold and earlier ECB hike, with inflation prints remaining elevated due to energy costs. US growth data underscored resilience while global forecasts pointed to moderated expansion amid geopolitical uncertainties. Markets saw long-end yields grind higher and equities hold buoyant despite the macro backdrop.

AI Weekly Brief3 min

Latest

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Ook voor nachtelijk Oranjeduel met Marokko staan gebakjes en schermen klaar
GeneralJune 29, 2026

Ook voor nachtelijk Oranjeduel met Marokko staan gebakjes en schermen klaar

Ondanks het voor veel mensen onchristelijke tijdstip, maken voetbalkijkers zich op voor de nachtelijke WK-kraker tussen Nederland en Marokko. In veel kroegen staan de schermen al klaar en door heel het land zijn er leuke initiatieven. Zo ook bij de bakkerij van de broers El Akoubi in Rotterdam. Speciaal voor de wedstrijd liggen er tompouces in de vitrines met daarop de Nederlandse of Marokkaanse vlag. Voor wie neutraal in de wedstrijd staat, is er ook eentje met de vlaggen van beide landen. "We gaan sowieso verliezen en sowieso winnen", zegt bakker El Akoubi zelf bij de regionale omroep Rijnmond. "Ik hoop op een gelijkspel, zodat we zo lang mogelijk kunnen genieten van de wedstrijd. En laat het dan maar beslist worden met penalty's." Een klant haalt alle varianten van de tompouces. "Ik heb vier Nederlandse en vier Marokkaanse vrienden dus ik moet het eerlijk verdelen", vertelt hij. Toch heeft hij zelf wel een lichte voorkeur voor wie er moet winnen. "Ik hoop dat ze gelijk opgaan, maar diep in mijn hart ga ik voor Marokko." De meeste cafés sluiten doorgaans om 03.00 uur de deuren, maar vannacht begint het feest dan pas. De terrassen mogen tijdens de wedstrijd niet openblijven, maar binnen mag het duel wel worden uitgezonden. Of het druk wordt, is gezien het tijdstip, moeilijk te voorspellen, zegt de Utrechtse kroegbaas Marcel Westerveld bij RTV Utrecht. "Het is een belangrijke wedstrijd. Marokko is een leuke tegenstander en de landen kennen elkaar goed. Het is misschien wel de mooiste pot van alle wedstrijden." Eigenaar Henk van Essen van een café in Renswoude verwacht "dat er wel wat volk op de wedstrijd af komt" maar zegt ook: "Het is een lastige tijd. Een wedstrijd om 01.00 uur gaat nog wel, maar 03.00 uur is moeilijker." In Oudewater wordt de kantine van de voetbalclub FC Oudewater door Gijs Kautz omgetoverd tot thuisbioscoop. "Ik heb onvergetelijke herinneringen aan het 's nachts wakker blijven om te kijken naar de wedstrijden", zegt hij, refererend aan het WK van 1994 in de Verenigde Staten. "Hoe mooi als je dat ook voor anderen kan doen." Kinderen willen kijken Sommige kinderen mogen vannacht wakker blijven om te kijken, zoals de kinderen van Kautz (8 en 10). Enkele leerlingen van de Holtkampschool in Zeeland worden wakker gemaakt door hun ouders, zegt hun leraar tegen Omroep Zeeland. "Ergens is dat ook wel mooi. Dat maak je niet zo vaak mee. De volgende dag komt het ook wel goed." Het klaslokaal in Doorn is versierd voor morgen: De kinderen van basisschool de Wijngaard in Doorn hebben een oplossing bedacht zodat ze morgen niet met wallen onder de ogen in de klas zitten: de leerlingen van groep 4 tot en met 8 gaan de wedstrijd morgenvroeg samen kijken en doen alsof het live is. Om te voorkomen dat iemand de eindstand lekt, hebben de juffen en meesters een passende straf bedacht: wie zijn mond voorbijpraat, moet terug naar de klas om rekensommen te maken.

NOS2 min read

Reports

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Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Empowering Inclusive Work -- by Yanyou Chen, Mitchell Hoffman, Huilan Xu, Zhe Yuan

Can AI improve workplace outcomes for workers with disabilities? We examine the relative performance of deaf or hard of hearing (DHH) workers on one of China's largest food-delivery platforms. Pre-AI, DHH workers are slower than non-disabled workers and have worse customer ratings, although they supply more hours to the platform and are less likely to quit. Midway through our data, the platform suddenly introduces an AI-based intelligent outbound calling system designed to improve customer co...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Climate and Prehistoric Migration -- by Peter Huybers, Marco Tabellini, Charles A. Taylor, Francesco Toti

What factors drove human migration before modern states, markets, and borders? We develop a sorting framework in which climate-specific subsistence knowledge depreciates with ecological distance. To test this, we use ancient DNA identity-by-descent segments to construct bilateral migration flows across Western Eurasia over the last 10,000 years. We document three main findings. First, migration flows decline with differences in growing degree days, precipitation, and soil characteristics betw...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Empathy, Social Networks, and Academic Achievement: Experimental Evidence on Cross-Productivity in Skill Formation -- by Flavio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Yiming Xia, Naibao Zhao

We evaluate a parent-directed empathy development program for middle school students in China using a randomized trial with 2,246 students. The four-month mobile app intervention produced short-run gains in empathy and reduced bullying but no immediate academic effects. Over the longer term, treatment students were 3.2 percentage points more likely to enter elite high schools and 2.5 percentage points less likely to miss the entrance exam. We trace these gains to improved self-beliefs and a r...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJune 28, 2026

The Search Costs of Inflation in the Labor Market -- by Laura Pilossoph, Jane M. Ryngaert, Jesse J. Wedewer

This paper studies the effect of unanticipated inflation in the labor market. When wages are contracted in nominal terms, inflation reduces real wages, leading workers to intensify on-the-job search to obtain wage-adjusting outside offers. Both the search effort and the resulting job mobility are costly, yet that same mobility raises output by moving workers toward more productive matches. To quantify these costs and benefits, we extend the canonical job ladder of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Do Wage Floors Increase Employment Risk for Workers with Disabilities? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and Subminimum Wage Repeal -- by Roisin O'Neill, Shailee Manandhar, Douglas L. Kruse

People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe disabilities. We examine the effects of state minimum wage increases and state subminimum wage terminations on employment outcomes for people with disabilities using American Community Survey data from 2010–2023. We find little evidence that minimum wage increases reduce employment or labor f...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Air Pollution and Early Childhood Outcomes: Evidence from Georgia Childcare Providers -- by Mahta Ghafarianghadim, Garth Heutel

Many effects of pollution exposure on health and education outcomes of children have been identified, but little is known about education effects on preschool-aged children. We estimate the effect of particulate matter air pollution on preschool attendance using restricted administrative data from the state of Georgia. We use thermal inversions, weather phenomena that trap pollutants, as an instrumental variable for pollution. A one-unit increase in the county-week average ambient particulate...

NBER1 min read