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Working PaperMay 12, 2026

Data Centers and Local Economies in the Age of AI: A Shift--Share Approach -- by Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente, Joyce Chow, Diana Van Patten

Data centers are the physical infrastructure behind cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and enterprise software. The rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) is intensifying demand for compute, accelerating investment in data centers, and raising concerns about the local economic and environmental footprint of these facilities. Their expansion creates a local policy tradeoff. A data center can bring capital investment, construction activity, and specialized employment, but it can...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 12, 2026

Mortality Rates by Race and Ethnicity Among People with Disabilities -- by Madeline S. Helfer, Becky Staiger, Jessica Van Parys

This paper uses Medicaid claims data from 2017-2021 to measure racial/ethnic disparities in mid-life mortality among low-income adults with disabilities receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). We find that American Indian and Alaska Native and White SSI recipients have the highest age-adjusted mid-life mortality rates (2.9% and 2.6%, respectively), followed by Black and Hispanic recipients (2.3% and 1.9%), and then Asian recipients (1.6%). We also find differences in diagnosed chronic c...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 12, 2026

Algorithmic Credentialism -- by Peter Q. Blair, Rui Guo

The paper develops a framework for evaluating credential-coded algorithmic screens under existing civil rights law. AI-powered hiring tools trained on historical data often encode and automate bachelor's degree requirements as a proxy for worker skill, producing what this paper terms algorithmic credentialism. Drawing on labor economics research on workers Skilled Through Alternative Routes (STARs), disability theory's critique of the medical model, and disparate-impact doctrine from Griggs v...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 12, 2026

Organization Capital, Large Startups, and the Dearth of IPOs -- by Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz, René M. Stulz

Many startups in the 2000s have remained private after achieving large valuations, a pattern that funding availability alone cannot explain. We propose that startups relying heavily on organization capital to achieve economies of scale and network effects through digital technologies are more likely to become large private firms than exit earlier via an IPO or acquisition. Using LinkedIn data, we construct a novel measure of organization capital intensity for startups. Exploiting a legal shoc...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 12, 2026

The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery -- by Jeffrey Clemens, Anwita Mahajan, Joseph J. Sabia

Adjustment frictions can cause the long-run effects of social insurance reforms to differ from their short-run effects. Using pre-committed extensions of event study specifications applied previously for short-run analyses, we test the hypothesis that the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) impacts on insurance coverage and employment would increase following the substantial churn generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to the hypothesis, the ACA’s impacts remained stable through the pandemic. L...

NBER1 min read

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