Institutional research & analysis

Reports

Curated financial intelligence from central banks, sovereign funds, and think tanks.

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Empowering Inclusive Work -- by Yanyou Chen, Mitchell Hoffman, Huilan Xu, Zhe Yuan

Can AI improve workplace outcomes for workers with disabilities? We examine the relative performance of deaf or hard of hearing (DHH) workers on one of China's largest food-delivery platforms. Pre-AI, DHH workers are slower than non-disabled workers and have worse customer ratings, although they supply more hours to the platform and are less likely to quit. Midway through our data, the platform suddenly introduces an AI-based intelligent outbound calling system designed to improve customer co...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Climate and Prehistoric Migration -- by Peter Huybers, Marco Tabellini, Charles A. Taylor, Francesco Toti

What factors drove human migration before modern states, markets, and borders? We develop a sorting framework in which climate-specific subsistence knowledge depreciates with ecological distance. To test this, we use ancient DNA identity-by-descent segments to construct bilateral migration flows across Western Eurasia over the last 10,000 years. We document three main findings. First, migration flows decline with differences in growing degree days, precipitation, and soil characteristics betw...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Empathy, Social Networks, and Academic Achievement: Experimental Evidence on Cross-Productivity in Skill Formation -- by Flavio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Yiming Xia, Naibao Zhao

We evaluate a parent-directed empathy development program for middle school students in China using a randomized trial with 2,246 students. The four-month mobile app intervention produced short-run gains in empathy and reduced bullying but no immediate academic effects. Over the longer term, treatment students were 3.2 percentage points more likely to enter elite high schools and 2.5 percentage points less likely to miss the entrance exam. We trace these gains to improved self-beliefs and a r...

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Working PaperJune 28, 2026

The Search Costs of Inflation in the Labor Market -- by Laura Pilossoph, Jane M. Ryngaert, Jesse J. Wedewer

This paper studies the effect of unanticipated inflation in the labor market. When wages are contracted in nominal terms, inflation reduces real wages, leading workers to intensify on-the-job search to obtain wage-adjusting outside offers. Both the search effort and the resulting job mobility are costly, yet that same mobility raises output by moving workers toward more productive matches. To quantify these costs and benefits, we extend the canonical job ladder of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Do Wage Floors Increase Employment Risk for Workers with Disabilities? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and Subminimum Wage Repeal -- by Roisin O'Neill, Shailee Manandhar, Douglas L. Kruse

People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe disabilities. We examine the effects of state minimum wage increases and state subminimum wage terminations on employment outcomes for people with disabilities using American Community Survey data from 2010–2023. We find little evidence that minimum wage increases reduce employment or labor f...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Air Pollution and Early Childhood Outcomes: Evidence from Georgia Childcare Providers -- by Mahta Ghafarianghadim, Garth Heutel

Many effects of pollution exposure on health and education outcomes of children have been identified, but little is known about education effects on preschool-aged children. We estimate the effect of particulate matter air pollution on preschool attendance using restricted administrative data from the state of Georgia. We use thermal inversions, weather phenomena that trap pollutants, as an instrumental variable for pollution. A one-unit increase in the county-week average ambient particulate...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Misleading Estimates from Nonlinear Models with a Binary Outcome -- by Brian Curran, Bruce D. Meyer, Derek Wu

When estimating nonlinear models for binary outcomes, such as probit and logit models, researchers often rely on average partial effects (APEs) to summarize the effect of a regressor. Because the marginal effect of a variable in these models depends on the values of all other variables, the value of an APE hinges on the portion of the sample used for the calculations. When averaged over parts of the sample drawn from a subpopulation not used to define the object of interest, the APE may be mi...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Shaping Major Choice: The Role of High School Counselors -- by Kennedy Johnston, Jonathan Meer, Danila Serra

Existing studies show that high school counselors can significantly influence students' graduation rates and college enrollment; less is known about their ability to direct students toward particular fields of study. We evaluate an information intervention aimed at increasing counselors' awareness of economics, a major often associated with misconceptions about its content and career opportunities, and characterized by substantial under-representation of women and racial and ethnic minorities...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Identity Uncertainty -- by Anujit Chakraborty, Arkadev Ghosh, Matt Lowe, Gareth Nellis

Many group identities that influence economic behavior are imperfectly observed. Individuals and institutions often conceal identity markers to limit discrimination. Yet concealment also creates uncertainty about group membership, hampering coordination in social interaction. To study this tradeoff, we paired high- and low-caste men for collaborative data entry work in North India. We randomly assigned each mixed-caste pair to either be: (i) introduced by full names, making caste common knowl...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

Paying for Quality vs. Paying for Rank: When Purifying a Metric Backfires -- by Joshua S. Gans, Scott Duke Kominers

Matching markets allocate scarce opportunities using performance metrics that agents can game. When does making a metric less gameable actually reduce gaming? We show that the answer hinges on how the market converts evaluations into stakes. Where evaluations assign prices — wages, credit terms, score-indexed payments — partially purifying the metric raises gaming precisely when gameable variation dominates it: the market's trust in the metric then rises faster than its exposure to gaming fal...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 28, 2026

What Happens to Contractors After States Ban Affirmative Action? -- by Benjamin Rosa

Using restricted Census business records, I explore how banning affirmative action in state contracting affects minority- and women-owned business enterprises (MWBEs). I find that ending affirmative action led MWBE contractors to gradually downsize, with the most pronounced reductions in force experienced by Black-owned businesses and larger MWBEs. Despite these workforce changes, existing MWBEs were no more likely to shut down than other businesses. New MWBEs were relatively less common afte...

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Working PaperJune 28, 2026

On the Origins of the Multinational Premium -- by José L. Fillat, Stefania Garetto

We study the relationship between management, multinational expansion, and risk premia. We document two facts: firms run by better managers are more likely to become multinationals (MNEs), and risk premia are higher for current and future MNEs than for firms that remain exclusively domestic. We develop a model in which endogenous matching between heterogeneous firms and managers jointly determines selection into foreign direct investment (FDI) and risk premia. Quantitatively, we use the model...

NBER1 min read