Institutional research & analysis

Source: VoxEU

RESEARCH

Research ColumnJune 28, 2026

Hedging interest rate risk when it matters: Evidence from Italian banks

Valuation losses can build quickly in response to higher interest rates, as demonstrated by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. This column shows that Italian banks do hedge against interest rate risk and, crucially, increase hedging when rates rise. This suggests banks actively adjust hedging intensity through derivatives, consistent with a state-dependent model of risk management. Institutions with lower capital ratios, a larger share of wholesale funding, and a smaller deposit base hedge ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 27, 2026

When trust in official statistics declines

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 26, 2026

AI, productivity, and work: Evidence from US firms

Real-time evidence from users can inform the current policy debates around artificial intelligence. This column reports on a survey of executives at typical US firms to reveal that AI adoption is already widespread but shallow. Executives report positive productivity effects and expect larger gains, especially in high-skill services and finance, although measured gains lag perceived productivity improvements. The gains appear to come mainly through innovation- and demand-oriented channels rat...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 26, 2026

China’s accession to the WTO increased pollution via coal powerplants, not exporters or their suppliers and consumers

As countries consider trade deals to foster development, the question of how trade impacts pollution keeps resurfacing. This column examines how China’s rapid entry into world markets in the early 2000s affected pollution through three channels. The authors find that (1) when firms export more, pollution near their manufacturing plants tends to fall; (2) pollution among local suppliers to exporting firms also tends to fall, suggesting that cleaner practices spread along production networks; a...

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Research ColumnJune 25, 2026

Measuring organisational capital from employee reviews

The way firms coordinate activities, motivate employees, accumulate knowledge, and adapt to changing environments evolves gradually over time, and is shaped by managerial decisions. This column proposes a new way of measuring this organisational capital using employee reviews on Glassdoor. The measure shows that CEO-related variation accounts for roughly one-third of organisational capital and that CEO turnovers are immediately followed by significant declines in organisational capital. The f...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 25, 2026

The impact of the US exit from free trade on trade cooperation elsewhere in the world

The large US tariffs announced in April 2025 led other countries to debate the best policy response. This column uses a multi-country model to study the implications of the US withdrawal from free trade for that cooperative equilibrium. It finds that even a complete US exit from global trade cooperation has limited quantitative impact on other countries’ optimal tariffs and on the sustainability of trade cooperation. Trade cooperation becomes harder to sustain when policymaker patience is low...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 25, 2026

The Success of the Embedded State

Who kept the courts sitting and the streetlights lit when the state had almost no money to pay anyone? Two hundred years ago, British local government ran on unpaid labour. In a parliamentary survey of the boroughs from 1835, two in three of the people doing local government work were not paid at all. James Robinson (University of Chicago, CEPR) explains how this succeeded in this week's episode of VoxTalks Economics. Robinson and his co-authors call this the "embedded state". Members of the ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 24, 2026

The impact of global versus regional energy shocks on the EU

Not all energy shocks are alike. This column uses a multi-country, multi-sector DSGE model with production networks and trade linkages to compare a Europe-centric regional energy shock — akin to the 2022 Russian gas crisis — with a broader global energy shock like the current Strait of Hormuz disruption. The global shock worsens the EU's terms of trade more severely and triggers exchange rate depreciation rather than the appreciation seen under a regional shock. Crucially, while the regional ...

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Research ColumnJune 24, 2026

When central banks over-deliver, markets listen differently

Financial markets pay close attention to monetary policy, and surprise policy decisions can strongly affect asset prices and the real economy. This column shows that financial markets care not only about the size of monetary policy surprises, but also whether the central bank over-delivers or under-delivers on market expectations. Short-term interest rates react up to ten times more strongly when central banks over-deliver. Moreover, it finds that information effects emerge primarily in over-...

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Research ColumnJune 23, 2026

Regulating platform work where informality matters: The Chilean case

Chile’s 2022 Platform Work Law was the first reform to address concerns about independent contractors of platform delivery and transportation services, a sector in which informality is pervasive across Latin America. This column takes advantage of Chilean survey data on platform work to evaluate the impact of the law. The findings suggest that so far it has failed in regulating minimum pay and working hours and in increasing the share of employees. However, it has led to some substitution of ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 22, 2026

One office day a month boosts remote team performance

Remote work has become a permanent feature of labour markets. But the question remains how to balance the benefits of remote work with the workplace interactions that support performance and retention. This column uses a randomised controlled trial in a large customer service multinational in Türkiye to explore the effects of assigning some employees to work together in the office one day per month. Monthly office days raised productivity by 8% without loss of service quality, improved commun...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 22, 2026

China shock 2.0 and the euro area: Cheaper imports, tougher competition

Chinese goods exports have expanded sharply since 2020, with Chinese firms increasingly competing in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. This column shows that the dominant factor driving this export growth is weak domestic demand, while government subsidies and technological upgrading play a smaller role. For the euro area, lower import unit values from China reduce consumer prices and lower capital accumulation, while stronger Chinese competition in third markets weakens export g...

VoxEU1 min read