Executive Summary
The S&P Merval advanced 2.35% for the week ended July 3, closing at 3,196,899.69 after adding 73,488 points. The move marked the largest one-week point and percentage gain since the week ending June 12 and ended a two-week losing streak. The index posted gains on four of the last six sessions and finished the period 4.66% below its June 11 record close.
Weekly Drivers
- Country risk fell to an eight-year low, supporting broader risk appetite.
- Financial names including Banco Macro and Galicia contributed to the advance alongside energy leader YPF.
- The peso remained near recent highs, helping limit imported inflation pressures.
- Year-to-date performance reached 4.76% while the 12-month gain stood above 53%.
Sectors & Breadth
Financials led weekly performance with banks among the top contributors. Energy shares also provided support. Available data point to a relatively concentrated advance rather than broad participation across all sectors, consistent with the index's recent pattern of leadership by a handful of large liquid names.
What to Watch
- Next domestic inflation and activity data releases for signs of sustained stabilization.
- Any updates on fiscal and monetary policy implementation.
- Movements in country risk spreads and the peso exchange rate.
- Earnings reports from major listed companies in the coming weeks.
Capital-Flow Context
Investor attention has shifted from earlier index-inclusion expectations toward Argentina's domestic fundamentals, including credit expansion and corporate earnings recovery. Lower country risk has eased some external financing concerns, though foreign positioning remains selective. Passive flows tied to global emerging-market benchmarks continue to provide a baseline support layer for the most liquid constituents.