The Week Ahead
Markets will monitor several U.S. data releases that could influence rate expectations ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. June CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday will provide fresh readings on price pressures, while retail sales on Thursday offer insight into consumer spending. Additional items include the NFIB small-business survey and international data such as China trade figures.
Key Events to Watch
- Monday: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech.
- Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June; U.S. CPI for June.
- Wednesday: U.S. PPI for June.
- Thursday: U.S. advance retail sales for June.
- Ongoing: China trade balance and financing data; various central-bank speeches.
Last Week in Review
U.S. equity indexes posted gains in the holiday-shortened week ending July 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also advanced, supported by technology and AI-related shares.
- Dow closed above 52,000 and touched intraday records.
- S&P 500 rose approximately 1.8% for the week.
- Nasdaq gained over 2% amid semiconductor and chip-stock activity.
- SK Hynix U.S. listing drew attention with strong debut performance.
Capital-Flow Watch
ETF inflows remained robust into early July, extending the record pace seen in the first half of 2026. U.S. equity funds captured the majority of flows, consistent with broader investor preference for domestic equities. Mutual-fund outflows continued while ETF net issuance stayed positive, highlighting the ongoing shift toward exchange-traded vehicles. Cross-border flows data for emerging markets showed continued but moderated portfolio interest.
Bottom Line
The central question this week is whether incoming inflation and spending data will alter expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy. Equity markets have shown resilience on growth themes, yet upcoming releases could prompt volatility if surprises emerge. Investors may monitor flows and sector rotation for signals on sustained risk appetite.