Institutional research & analysis

Source: BIS

INSTITUTIONAL

Working PaperJune 11, 2026

The anatomy of stablecoin transactions

Stablecoin transfers are often interpreted as payments. On programmable blockchains, however, they are frequently embedded in atomically executed transaction bundles that combine trading, lending, arbitrage, liquidity provision, and settlement. We show that ignoring this structure materially distorts the interpretation of stablecoin activity. Using 593 million event logs from 141 million Ethereum transactions involving three major U.S. dollar stablecoins, we develop a replicable framework to ...

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Research PaperJune 11, 2026

Strengthening the going-concern role of AT1: options and trade-offs

Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments are designed to operate as going-concern capital. In instances where the issuer reaches the point of non-viability, these instruments also support an orderly resolution of a gone concern. Nonetheless, in practice, the effectiveness of AT1 Instruments in fulfilling their primary role as going-concern capital is undermined by low trigger thresholds, the discretionary nature of activation and insufficient incentives for recapitalisation.

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Working PaperJune 9, 2026

Asset price bubbles and systemic risk in money market funds

We investigate the systemic risk contribution of 3,500 Money Market Funds (MMFs) in normal periods and during asset price bubbles in the US from January 2004 to December 2022. Using state-of-the-art statistical techniques for bubble detection and granular fund-level data, we show that MMF characteristics significantly influence systemic risk.

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Working PaperJune 8, 2026

The digitalisation of banking and social media: implications for deposit pricing

This paper examines the implications of two coincident digital trends – the digitalisation of banking and the widespread adoption of social media – for the pricing of deposits in the United States. Using branch-level data, we analyse how both trends interact to influence the level of deposit rates as well as their adjustment to changes in the policy rate.

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Working PaperJune 5, 2026

The credibility of bail-in

The resolution framework for global systemically important banks has been over a decade in the making. The failure of Credit Suisse (CS) in March 2023 was its first major test. Authorities had a resolution plan in place but chose a different path amid financial stability concerns.

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Research PaperJune 3, 2026

Global pension asset allocations and debt markets

The pensions sector is an important investor group in global financial markets and a key holder of government and corporate debt. This paper examines the evolution of pension fund asset allocations around the globe and documents important structural changes. Over time, pension investors have shifted from fixed income securities to mutual fund shares. In the meantime, they have also reallocated from traditional investments into alternative investments. Evidence from US pensions suggests that t...

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Working PaperJune 2, 2026

Making stablecoins stable(r): can regulation help?

We model a stablecoin issuer that optimises capital, cash and bond holdings under persistent stablecoin flows. Absent regulation, the issuer holds little capital and favours interest-bearing but less-liquid bonds over cash.

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Working PaperJune 1, 2026

Monetary policy according to households: perceptions, reactions and channels

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how households expect changes in the federal funds rate to affect economic conditions and their own behavior.

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Research PaperMay 28, 2026

Insurer resolution framework - Executive Summary

Insurer failures can have harmful effects on individuals and businesses, economic activity and financial stability. Resolution is a way to manage the failure of financial institutions, including insurers, that prevents severe systemic disruption without exposing taxpayers to loss.

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Working PaperMay 28, 2026

The strength of the inflation-output link in China

We systematically investigate the relationship between China's inflation, economic slack, and expectations through the lens of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC). Extending existing research, we employ inflation expectations from Consensus Economics over recent samples and assess the stability of the estimates. Despite China's unique and evolving institutions, NKPC estimates are stable and show significant roles for both the output gap and inflation expectations in contrast to previous find...

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Working PaperMay 27, 2026

Liquidity regulation and bank funding costs

We establish a causal link between liquidity regulation and a lower cost of bank wholesale funding. For identification, we use pre-determined variation in banks' liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) in a difference-in-differences setup. Granular instrument-level data allow us to carefully control for any observable and unobservable time-varying factors at the creditor, instrument type, and macroeconomic levels. We find that banks with greater LCR exposure see a steeper decline in their wholesale fu...

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Working PaperMay 26, 2026

Disciplining digital risk: evidence from cyber stress tests

Investment in cybersecurity in an interconnected banking system has public-good properties: positive externalities can generate systemic underinvestment. Using confidential supervisory data from the European Central Bank, we first identify "laggard" European banks that underinvest relative to their cyber-risk profiles, and then examine how supervisory scrutiny affects their incentives to invest.

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