Institutional research & analysis

Source: NBER

RESEARCH

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

When GDP Misleads: Inferring Living Standards from the Value of a Statistical Life -- by Philip Trammell, Charles I. Jones

Real GDP per person is a widely used proxy for living standards, but it can be a poor welfare measure when new goods or quality improvements matter, when nonmarket goods are significant, and when preferences are nonhomothetic --- all of which are true in practice. We propose an alternative that is robust to these concerns: under weak conditions, the growth rate of the value of a statistical life (VSL), together with standard Euler-equation objects, identifies the growth rate of lifetime utili...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration and Earnings Changes in Poor Neighborhoods -- by Andrew Garin, Ethan Jenkins, Evan E. Mast, Bryan A. Stuart

This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases ...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Health Care Reform and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Medicare Part D and the Retail Pharmacy Industry -- by Brandyn F. Churchill, Georgina Cisneros, Kelli R. Marquardt

Health care reforms are often enacted before implementation, creating uncertainty that can shape firms’ decisions. We examine how Medicare Part D affected the retail pharmacy industry using 2000-2009 establishment-level data, leveraging the fact that Part D disproportionately affected counties with larger elderly populations. Consistent with predictions from a conceptual model in which pre-implementation uncertainty discourages entry and lower post-implementation margins prevent full recovery...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Leaning Against Inflation Experiences -- by Stefan Nagel

A large share of secular variation in real interest rates can be understood as the effect of monetary policy leaning against experience-based long-run inflation expectations. Survey microdata show that adaptive learning from experienced inflation generates highly persistent, slow-moving long-run inflation expectations. When expectations are shaped by experience, central banks cannot anchor them through communication. Instead, when expectations deviate from the inflation target, monetary polic...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

The Incredible Flexibility of Moment Matching -- by Isaiah Andrews, Bas Sanders

We ask how far the choice of which moments to match can push estimates in misspecified structural models. The answer is: very far. Under regularity conditions, an adversarial researcher informed about the data distribution can choose moments that render any parameter value the unique solution to the population moment-matching problem. Moreover, in many cases they can do so with little increase in model-implied standard errors relative to maximum likelihood. We illustrate both results in a men...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Labor Market Responses to Tariffs: Frictions, Dynamics, and Policy Responses -- by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Brian K. Kovak

This article introduces the evidence and associated modeling frameworks contemporary economists use to understand the effects of trade and trade policy on labor markets, with a particular emphasis on labor-market frictions and adjustment dynamics. The effects of trade shocks differ across industries, regions, and occupations, implying the presence of important adjustment frictions in labor markets, and these effects evolve slowly over time, implying the need for dynamic frameworks rationalizi...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Prices Versus Quantities Revisited: What Do Policymakers Need to Know to Set Pigouvian Taxes and Subsidies? -- by Denise Dipasquale, Edward L. Glaeser, Adam M. Guren, Paul S. Willen

What information do policymakers need to design Pigouvian taxes or subsidies? Standard logic suggests that it is sufficient to know the size of the externality and unnecessary to know about quantities. Yet this logic is incorrect if interventions have fixed costs, taxes create deadweight losses, or there are distributional concerns. We present a model in which these considerations can make it more valuable for policymakers to learn about equilibrium quantities. We apply the model to congestio...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

Compensation vs. Reinforcement: Experimental Identification of Parental Aversion to Inequality in Offspring -- by Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Matias Busso, Sebastian Galiani, Hyunjae Kang, Juan S. Muñoz-Morales, Juan Pantano

Parents may invest differently across children by compensating the disadvantaged child or by reinforcing the child with higher expected returns. We study this question using a conditional cash transfer experiment that uniquely randomized transfers at the student level, generating exogenous variation in transfer exposure across siblings within the same household. The transfers increased short-run attendance among treated students but generated negative spillovers on untreated siblings: untreat...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

A Practitioner's Guide to Using Large Language Models and Generative AI in Economic History -- by Andreas Ferrara

Large language models (LLMs) are lowering the entry barriers to working with exciting data sources that used to require strong data science skills, such as handwritten ledgers, text, images, or sound recordings. This guide provides an introduction for researchers who are new to LLMs. It sets out a step-by-step workflow for turning a research idea into working code and data, and describes the four main ways of interacting with an LLM: the chat window, editor-integrated assistants, agentic codi...

NBER1 min read

Working PaperJune 29, 2026

AI and the Collapse of the www -- by Alex Chan

This paper studies market design for generative AI intermediation. AI answer systems can improve user experience while diverting visits that finance publisher content and generate source-level quality signals. I show that an AI platform that underinternalizes future content reproduction retains too little referral traffic and can make costly open-web information subcritical, even with truthful content, accurate answers, and rational users. The mechanism can be self-reinforcing: less source-le...

NBER1 min read