Institutional research & analysis

Source: VoxEU

RESEARCH

Research ColumnJune 21, 2026

Independent central banks take more risk, not less

The fiscal dominance view holds that politically captured central banks are more likely to be pushed into taking risky positions, while independent ones resist. This column presents new estimates of the value at risk in the balance sheets of 18 advanced economies’ central banks over two decades which suggest the opposite: more independent central banks take more financial risk, and they do so most aggressively when fiscal policy tightens. Independence, it seems, frees central banks to deploy ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 21, 2026

Europe’s ungoverned space: Military AI and the autonomy that cannot be bought

European defence ministries and intelligence services run on infrastructure they do not control and cannot independently audit – a situation highlighted by the US administration’s directive of 12 June 2026 ordering Anthropic to suspend access to its most powerful AI models for all non-US persons. This column argues that it will take ten to fifteen years for Europe to develop AI capability sufficient to negotiate as a peer, and proposes three steps to buy time while Europe closes the gap.

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 20, 2026

Writing code versus shipping code: Productivity effects across generations of AI coding tools

Generative AI now writes a substantial share of the world's code, but aggregate software output has changed far less. This column uses data on more than 100,000 GitHub developers, combined with data on their AI tool usage, to trace the productivity effects of three successive generations of AI coding tools. Each generation raises coding activity more than the last, but the gains shrink sharply as work moves from writing code to shipping software. Human bottlenecks in reviewing, integrating, t...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 19, 2026

Electing women does not reduce corruption: Evidence from Brazil

As women gain political ground around the world, there is hope that the election of more women might also mean cleaner government. But is this the case? This column examines thousands of close mixed-gender elections in Brazil across two decades and finds that electing a woman mayor neither increases nor reduces corruption. Instead, incumbents are consistently more corrupt across various metrics. Women continue to face substantial barriers on the path to office and dismantling these remains a ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 18, 2026

When travel restrictions became trade frictions: Evidence from Covid-era border closures

Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. This column uses a structural gravity model on global trade flows with domestic trade and shows that a full closure reduced trade for a typical country pair by around 19%, implying a peak hit to global trade of about 23% in 2020Q2. Hits were larger for nearby partners, and were concentrated in road and air freight, with seaborne trade unaffected. These differences explain why some count...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 18, 2026

Private capital markets and inequality

Private capital markets have expanded rapidly, but access remains concentrated among wealthy investors. This column presents new evidence from the US which shows that high-net-worth individuals’ early-stage investments have grown significantly over 2004-2022 and returns exceeded those in public stock market benchmarks. These investments helped startups stay private and contributed to rising top wealth shares. Thus, the growth of private capital markets has implications that extend beyond how ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 18, 2026

From bilateralism to a system: Europe’s early trade treaties and lessons for EU trade policy in a contested world

As tensions rise between major powers and the global trading system becomes more contested, policymakers often frame the choice they face starkly: either deeper centralised multilateralism or a retreat into protectionism and competing blocs. Using a dataset covering nearly 900 commercial treaties from 1815 to 1919, this column argues that Europe's historical experience suggests a more pragmatic alternative: maintaining a commitment to open markets while continuing to expand networks of commer...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 18, 2026

Making Defence Spending Pay

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, £30bn a year for each percentage point. What does the country get back? Can defence spending be pro-growth? In this week's VoxTalk, John Van Reenen (LSE) argues that getting a return on investment based on innovation need not be left to luck. For example nuclear power, GPS and the internet all began as military projects. The spillovers can be...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 17, 2026

Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows

Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping firms’ incentives to invest across borders. This column argues that both trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty significantly depress bilateral foreign direct investment flows, with uncertainty exerting particularly large and persistent effects. The consequences are most severe for investors in emerging markets and developing...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 17, 2026

Prevention at birth: Birthright citizenship reduces youth crime

When youth crime draws public attention, policymakers typically call for tougher policing and harsher sanctions, overlooking the crime-reducing benefits of early prevention – investments in education, job opportunities, institutional trust, and a sense of belonging. This column combines administrative crime data from three German federal states with a novel empirical approach to examine an unexpected prevention tool that begins at birth: birthright citizenship. Acquiring citizenship at birth ...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 16, 2026

The design and effect of tariff retaliation: Evidence from the EU

As global trade policy becomes increasingly protectionist, the threat of tariff retaliation looms large. This column analyses how the EU’s 2018 response to US steel and aluminium affected EU trade. It finds that strategic retaliation can successfully insulate the domestic economy from inflationary effects. However, even this type of retaliation leaves scars in bilateral trade relations, which did not recover even after the tariffs were suspended in 2022. Furthermore, larger retaliation packag...

VoxEU1 min read

Research ColumnJune 16, 2026

The impact of trade wars on firms in third countries

Bilateral trade shocks may reallocate demand and competition across countries, creating spillovers for firms in bystander countries. To study how firms respond to trade shocks happening elsewhere, this column proposes a tractable trade model that allows trade elasticities to vary across destinations and incorporates external economies of scale. Applying the model to the universe of Italian firms, the authors find that the 2018–2019 US–China trade war generated an average export gain of 2.5%, ...

VoxEU1 min read