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Institutional research & analysis

Source: VoxEU

RESEARCH

Research ColumnJune 7, 2026

One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation

The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed into domestic inflation dynamics through expectations, wages, and energy-price transmission. Countries with histories of higher inflation and stronger energy pass-through experienced substantially more persistent inflation, while credible policy frameworks helped contain second-round effects. Temporary energy-price smoothing through ...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 6, 2026

Making sense of conflicting labour market signals

Can policymakers rely on traditional labour market indicators when unemployment, vacancies, wages, and payroll growth appear to send conflicting signals? This column presents a new framework that extracts four interpretable ‘narrative factors’ from 94 US labour market indicators spanning from 1960 to 2026. These narrative factors suggest that the post-pandemic soft landing reflected not only cooling labour demand, but also an unusual simultaneous decline in short-run labour supply, which supp...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 4, 2026

The Digital Money Supply

Every day, billions of transactions settle between strangers who have no idea which bank the other uses. That lack of friction is not automatic. Nine-tenths of the money in daily circulation has been created by commercial banks, but it stays trustworthy only because central banks stand behind it, and keep the system in balance. In this week’s episode Tim Phillips talks to Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University, CEPR) about what happens when new forms of digital money test that architecture. C...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 4, 2026

How flexible work arrangements reshape mothers’ careers

Work from home expanded dramatically after the pandemic. This column presents evidence from Italy that this transformation may have reduced one of the most persistent sources of gender inequality in labour markets: the motherhood penalty. Post-pandemic, mothers employed in jobs compatible with remote work experienced substantially higher earnings in the year following childbirth relative to mothers in less flexible ones, and were also more likely to remain in full-time employment. The authors...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 4, 2026

Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock

Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area into a fundamental component corresponding to risk-neutral expected inflation, and a frictional component. Raw market prices exaggerate movements in fundamental expectations. It shows that following the Iran conflict, fundamental year-ahead inflation expectations increased by more in the UK, whereas for the US raw market pric...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 3, 2026

The early takeoff of space innovation

The conventional account of US space sector transformation credits the post-2005 entry of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other commercial firms with revitalising a stagnant industry. This column documents, however, how the largest sustained surge in US space-sector patenting occurred in the 1990s, was concentrated among incumbent aerospace firms, and coincided with a wave of government policies that created downstream commercial markets. Incumbent firms have continued to account for most space-rela...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 2, 2026

Not all foreign exchange reserves are created alike

The motives for the accumulation and management of foreign exchange reserves are a key topic in international economics. This column highlights an aspect of the international monetary system that has been the subject of little research: the distinction between foreign exchange reserves held as deposits and securities. Using new data for 109 countries since 1950, it documents a major shift toward securities starting in the late 1990s. This reflected reserve accumulation beyond immediate liquid...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 2, 2026

Why the post-pandemic US immigration surge barely moved inflation

The US experienced a large immigration surge between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with a period of high and then falling inflation. This column shows that the immigration surge originated from a handful of Central and South American countries, and the immigrants were mostly low-skilled and with low liquid wealth. A structural model with these features suggests that the demand and supply effects of higher migration roughly cancel out, with minimal implications for inflation. Monetary policym...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 1, 2026

Cheaper machines, costlier buildings: The drag on long-run growth

The steady decline in the relative price of equipment has long been seen as a primary engine of long-run growth. This column documents a quieter, countervailing trend. In the US and other high-income economies, the relative price of structures has been rising for half a century. It now offsets a substantial share of the gains from cheaper equipment. The proximate driver is weak productivity growth in construction itself.

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 1, 2026

What we lose when women do not get tenure: Evidence from a natural experiment

Women remain underrepresented in the upper ranks of academia, but evidence on the mechanisms behind this has been scarce. This column exploits a change in the Spanish academic qualification system that introduced quasi-random variation in candidates’ evaluation committees to explore the consequences of failing to obtain tenure. Women who failed to obtain tenure during the change were less likely than men to obtain it later in their careers, while departments that promoted a woman went on to p...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnJune 1, 2026

New coins on the block: Digital currencies and the financial system

The crypto system is no longer a sideshow. Dollar stablecoins now put dollar claims into circulation well beyond the regulated US banking perimeter, and cryptoisation is beginning to transform the international monetary and financial system. This column argues that the changes crypto sets in motion will be shaped by institutions and technological innovation. Who issues money, who anchors it, and who bears the cost when things go wrong are central issues. But as money migrates onto programmabl...

VoxEU1 min read