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Curated financial intelligence from central banks, sovereign funds, and think tanks.

Research ColumnMay 30, 2026

The global minimum tax: More winners than losers – even without the US

A landmark shift in the international corporate tax system is taking shape. The introduction of a 15% global minimum tax aims to reduce profit shifting and constrain tax competition, and will lead to broad economic consequences. Using a multi-country macroeconomic model, this column provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of its welfare effects, weighing higher tax revenues and reduced inefficiencies against potential investment disincentives. The results point to modest but positive...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 29, 2026

The transatlantic divide in labour’s share of income

Across advanced economies, workers have been receiving a smaller share of national incomes. This column compares the evolution of labour’s share of income in Europe and the US from 1960 to 2023. Europe experienced a sizeable decline in labour’s share between 1980 and 2000, but the trend largely stabilised thereafter. In the US, labour’s share drifted down gradually for several decades before falling much more sharply after 2000. Labour market reforms and demographic change were the main drive...

VoxEU1 min read
Working PaperMay 29, 2026

FEDS Paper: Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation

Edward Herbst, Scott Konzem, and Cristina Scofield We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes around the baseline. We construct a taxonomy with six categories: aggregate demand, aggregate supply, external risks, financial conditions, fiscal policy, and expectation shifts. Staff...

Federal Reserve1 min read
Working PaperMay 29, 2026

FEDS Paper: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry

Dong Hwan Oh and Andrew J. Patton We propose a new measure of mutual fund manager ability: "efficiency" is the ability to accrue the risk premium associated with a risk factor. The familiar abnormal return, or alpha, is shown to be the sum of two distinct measures of ability: "aggregate efficiency" which is the beta-weighted sum of the fund's (in)efficiencies across risk factors, and "skill," the component that is unrelated to factor exposures. Using a panel of U.S. equity mutual fund returns...

Federal Reserve1 min read
Policy BriefMay 29, 2026

Joint Statement by the Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization

Washington, May 29, 2026: The Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization met on May 28 as part of the high-level coordination group established in April to maximize their institutions’ response to the energy, trade, and economic impacts of the war in the Middle East.

World Bank1 min read